It’s been a bad few years for the image of diesel engines.
Since the Volkswagen emissions scandal broke in 2015, the idea of so-called clean diesel has taken a beating, with a steady diet of new allegations accusing more carmakers of trying to cheat emissions tests. Now, Volkswagen, which has paid billions to settle civil and criminal claims, is aggressively shifting its focus from diesel, the type of engine it used to power it, to electric.
The overall effect has been predictions that the end of diesel will come in Europe, where it has long been a key piece of the automotive puzzle. According to Forbes, diesel sales in Germany fell in January to 33.3% of the market from 45.1% just a year ago.
But even as diesel faces an existential crisis in Europe, experts say the engine will continue to play a role in the United States for years to come. one reason? Americans love trucks.
“In the U.S., all we care about is the diesel pickup truck,” said Rebecca Lindland, an analyst at Kelley Blue Book. “There’s really nothing better for torque, there’s really nothing better for towing…there’s really nothing better in the tank.” For fuel economy.” who refers to the trio as “The Three”.
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Lindland, who noted that diesel promises up to 30% better fuel economy than gas, said she believes Europe will continue to offer diesel opportunities in station wagons and SUVs in the near future because “what we do with pickup trucks, they do with stations.” Wagons and SUVs.”
Some US automakers rely on diesel technology. Both Ford and General Motors are planning diesel engine options for the 2019 F-150 and Chevrolet Silverado, and Fiat Chrysler will likely announce a diesel option for the Ram 1500 later this year. Diesel also appears in the 2018 Chevy Cruze sedan, which promises 702 miles on the tank.
Diesel is only a small piece of the US market (low single digits, per Lindland), but that market is growing. An IHS Markit report from last year showed a steady increase in diesel production over the next few years. IHS attributed most of that to light trucks, but also showed an increase in diesel vehicles. This report shows that diesel will peak at more than 1.5 million vehicles by 2020 from approximately less than 600,000 vehicles in 2000.
U.S. diesel passenger vehicle production fell in 2015 and 2016 as the VW scandal widened, but IHS expects those numbers to rise now or at least stabilize through 2025.
But diesel emissions are still considered a problem.
According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, “Diesel-powered vehicles and equipment account for nearly half of all nitrogen oxides and more than two-thirds of total particulate matter emissions from transportation sources in the United States.” The organization says that particles are considered an irritant and can contribute to premature death.
The emissions scandal has undermined much of the work that had helped improve the technology’s image.
“Diesel has always been a dirty word, and they’ve worked hard to clean it up,” Lindland said, noting that for Volkswagen, in particular, the scandal has hurt the company’s competitive advantage.
“The word diesel (connotes) pollution, fair or unfair,” Lindland said.
This belief affects diesel as well as gas in Europe and in other key markets, such as China, where there is a push to boost adoption of electric vehicles.
The company’s analysts expect the end of diesel in Europe could come as early as 2035, Mike Fisk, chief global powertrain analyst for IHS, said during a presentation last year.
But he said, “Diesel for America is not going away.”
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Diesel certainly has its defenders.
Diesel remains a viable technology for the same reasons it was before the Volkswagen scandal broke, said Allen Schaefer, executive director of the Diesel Technology Forum, a trade group.
“It provides consumers with a proven fuel-efficiency option that doesn’t force them to sacrifice vehicle type or performance. The largest number of new entrants to the market are in the larger vehicle space — pickup trucks, crossovers, and mid- and full-size SUVs. This makes sense because The largest vehicles are the ones where the fuel efficiency opportunity for diesel engines is the greatest, which is also encouraging given that these are the fastest growing segments in auto sales compared to cars,” he said in response to a Free Press inquiry.
But diesel is certainly under pressure, whether from changing attitudes or progress in vehicle electrification. Lindland suggested, for example, that if Tesla succeeds in launching its semi-electric car, diesel’s days are truly numbered.
In addition, a court case is being heard this week in Germany that could have serious implications for the future of diesel in Europe. Reuters reported that Germany’s Federal Administrative Court — “the court of last resort for such matters” — will rule on whether cities in the country can ban what are considered highly polluting cars.
The news service also noted that “Paris, Madrid, Mexico City and Athens have said they plan to ban diesel vehicles from city centers by 2025, while the mayor of Copenhagen wants to ban new diesel cars from entering the city as soon as next year.” France and Britain will ban new petrol and diesel cars by 2040 as part of a shift to electric cars.
Contact Eric D. Lawrence: elawrence@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter: @ericdlawrence.
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