Alternative Truck Technologies
Several alternative truck technologies, including battery electric trucks and hydrogen fuel cell trucks (which are considered zero-emission trucks), show promise in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, especially when powered by renewable electricity. Another emerging technology is the hydrogen internal combustion engine. Proposed CO2 standards for heavy-duty trucks set ambitious targets for reducing tailpipe emissions, with an emphasis on the need for widespread deployment of zero-emission trucks. However, some stakeholders are calling for alternative fuels such as synthetic diesel, hydrotreated vegetable oil, and bio-compressed natural gas to be counted toward compliance.
Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Analysis
Given consumers’ price sensitivity for commercial vehicles, this study focuses on total cost of ownership as a critical factor influencing the adoption of alternative technologies. Building on previous research, the analysis is extended to different truck classes, takes into account alternative technologies and additional fuels, and projects through 2040. The study also updates fuel and energy costs to reflect changes between 2020 and 2023.
Main results
Battery powered electric motors:
– The technology is expected to be most cost-effective before 2030.
– Total cost of ownership is already on par with diesel counterparts for medium and light urban trucks.
Total cost of ownership parity with long-haul heavy-duty trucks is expected to be achieved between 2025 and 2026.
– The possibility of finding cost-effective solutions even for cross-border applications that require long distances before 2030, provided that public charging infrastructure with a high megawatt capacity is available.
Hydrogen fuel cell engines:
– Expected to be cost-competitive with diesel trucks by 2035.
Total cost of ownership parity with diesel for medium and light urban trucks is expected to be achieved by 2030.
The economic performance of diesel trucks in the long-haul sector is unlikely to be matched before 2035.
– Long-term total cost of ownership is 10% to 20% higher than battery electric trucks.
Conventional trucks powered by alternative fuels:
– Hydrogenated vegetable oils, e-diesel and bio-CNG are not expected to reach TCO parity with diesel before 2040.
– Total cost of ownership could be 15% to 45% higher than zero-emission counterparts by 2030, depending on truck class.
– E-diesel and bio-compressed natural gas engines struggle to keep up with the total cost of ownership of zero-emission trucks and diesel trucks over the long term.
– Trucks running on 100% heavy fuel oil may have a better total cost of ownership than e-diesel and bio-compressed natural gas by 2030, but they will still be 20% to 30% more expensive than battery electric trucks.
Hydrogen combustion trucks:
– Unable to match the economic performance of its zero-emission or diesel counterparts.
– Total cost of ownership is expected to be better than conventional e-diesel and bio-CNG trucks in the long term.
– Battery electric trucks are expected to cost 25% to 45% more by 2040, due to the price of green hydrogen fuel and higher fuel consumption.
– Economic performance outperforms conventional e-diesel and bio-compressed natural gas trucks, with up to 15% lower total cost of ownership for long-haul trucks.
Conclusion
The study provides a comprehensive analysis of the total cost of ownership (TCO) of various truck categories and drivetrain technologies in Europe. The results confirm the near-term cost effectiveness of battery electric powertrains, with hydrogen fuel cell technologies becoming competitive by 2035. Conventional trucks using alternative fuels face challenges in reaching TCO parity, while hydrogen combustion trucks, while more expensive than their battery electric counterparts, may outperform conventional trucks using certain fuels. The results provide valuable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders as they navigate the transition to more sustainable heavy-duty vehicles.
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