The road ahead for the global truck industry is likely to be lucrative but more competitive. Our analysis through 2030 reveals that mature, high-margin markets will remain key profit pools for the medium and heavy truck segment (trucks weighing more than six tons), and industry trends are expected to increase the importance of aftermarket services. Business to OEMs (Figure 1).
These are just some of the findings of our new report, The Road 2030 – A Regional Look at Trucking Industry Profit Pools. This article summarizes additional insights from the report, which is based on market data and annual reports of major truck OEMs covering approximately 80 percent of global medium- and heavy-duty truck sales volume.
Overall, truck profits are expected to increase by €4.9 billion, reaching €16.1 billion in 2030. Of this total, aftermarket profits will account for €7.1 billion, with a return on sales of 21.1 percent, thus accounting for almost half Total global OEM profits. By 2030. In fact, our research reveals that developed markets are already showing greater profitability in aftermarket services than in new truck sales.
Regionally, North America and Western Europe remain the most profitable markets, contributing approximately 65 percent of total profits (Figure 2). Emerging markets are likely to see below-average profitability, especially those in the Asia-Pacific region, India, and South America (although Brazil is showing signs of market recovery). Central and Eastern Europe is likely to be the only region that combines relatively strong profitability (return on sales of 6.2% in 2030), with above-average unit volume growth of 3.8% CAGR until 2030. Strong recovery expected in Russia will mainly lead this performance.
China’s truck market is expected to expand its total earnings from €1.6 billion in 2017 to between €1.8 billion and €2.4 billion in 2030, driven by the attractive “upper budget” segment, while the share of premium imports in the Chinese truck market will rise. . Pretty much stagnant. Global truck makers are expected to localize their products in China and compete for the high-budget market, which includes “local premium” trucks.
The global trucking industry’s strong showing is attracting new players vying to enter this lucrative industry with new technologies (e.g., alternative engines, autonomous vehicles, truck delivery solutions). They can put unprepared incumbents at a disadvantage.
We believe global truck makers should focus on three activities:
Capture profits in mature markets and prepare for new opportunities in select emerging markets, especially the upper budget segment in China. Make concerted efforts to meet regulatory and market obligations with a strong focus on cost and operational excellence. Overinvest today to build new opportunities and business models going forward.
Download The Road 2030 — A Regional View of Trucking Industry Profit Pools, the full report on which this article is based (PDF, 6MB).
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