Ice roads vital for transportation in remote communities may crack and sink due to unseasonably warm weather; Is this the end for truckers on icy roads?
Icy roads could crack and sink due to an unseasonably warm start to the new year across Europe and North America, a trend highlighted by York University associate professor Sapna Sharma and her team in a recent study.
Research from the University of York warns that ice roads used for essential transport such as transporting people, food, medicine and fuel in remote northern communities, as well as heavy machinery used by industry, may become unsustainable as the climate warms.
Will truck drivers on icy roads become a thing of the past?
Will truck drivers on icy roads become a thing of the past, asks Sharma, a freshwater expert at York University’s Faculty of Science.
Sharma believes this will depend on the thickness of ice needed to support the truck and its load.
Of course, vehicles vary, so while snowmobiles, vans and skiers may be able to cope, pickup trucks and trucks transporting skiers in northern Canada, the US, Russia and Sweden may struggle and find the ice cracks underneath. .
“This moderate weather could have significant impacts on northern communities that depend on these roads and ice for their existence. These communities will be the most affected by the expected change in the duration and thickness of lake ice,” says Sharma.
“It will also impact recreational uses, even in southern regions. Our warming world is creating conditions where lake ice duration is shrinking at alarming rates, and even if those lakes are still freezing over, the ice may not be thick enough for safe use.”
Transport trucks need ice roads at least one meter thick
The study authors monitored daily lake data from a set of climate model simulations conducted using a modern Earth system model. They studied how lake ice health changes across the Northern Hemisphere.
“For these trucks, our research shows that the number of safe ice days would decrease by 90 percent with a 1.5 degree Celsius increase in global warming. This transitions to 95 percent with a 2 degree Celsius increase, and 99 percent with a rise in global temperature By 3 degrees Celsius.
Regarding recreation, the researchers looked at how the winter activity season might be affected. They found that safe ice for recreational purposes could decrease by 13, 17 and 24 days with the same warming projections of 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C, respectively.
In order to support the weight of a person, the thickness of the ice must be at least 10 cm. However, it should be noted that previous research by Sharma and their team has already shown an increase in drownings in winter lake ice affected by warming winters.
The study’s authors predicted that the most densely populated areas in the Northern Hemisphere would see the greatest loss of safe lake ice, posing serious problems for truck drivers on icy roads.
“There is a real need to develop and implement adaptation plans to address the imminent loss of vital winter ice roads and transportation infrastructure across the Northern Hemisphere,” says Sharma.
