What are the causes of the protests?
The so-called Freedom Caravan protests, which began about two weeks ago in Ottawa, were sparked by a mandate requiring truck drivers crossing the Canadian border to be vaccinated against COVID-19. But they’re not a reaction to last month’s mandate, but rather a reflection of public frustration with pandemic-related restrictions over the past two years. Restrictions have been imposed and then lifted in ways that haven’t always made sense to the public. To be fair to Canada’s federal and provincial governments, those restrictions have helped the country keep its COVID-19 death rate to about a third of the United States’. So from a public health perspective, they’ve been very successful. But there are plenty of Canadians who are frustrated by the ongoing restrictions.
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Even if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau were to cave tomorrow and lift the federal vaccination mandate for truckers, the U.S. vaccination mandate for foreign truckers that was imposed in January would prevent them from crossing the border. Plus, truckers have been largely exempt from U.S.-Canada border restrictions throughout the pandemic because they are considered essential workers. So the vaccination mandate is mostly symbolic, not central, to these protests.
How does this affect trade between the United States and Canada?
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The closure of the Ambassador Bridge (which connects Detroit, Michigan, and Windsor, Ontario) is the biggest disruption ever. About a quarter of all trade between the United States and Canada passes through the bridge, and there are no good alternative routes. The auto industry has relied on cross-border trade since 1965. Modest delays in parts could be enough to shut down factories that operate on a “just-in-time” basis; in fact, some disruptions have occurred. There are other border protests, including at Coutts, Alberta, a major cattle trade route, but the Ambassador Bridge closure is the most significant. It prompted the United States to step in, because the closure has significant economic consequences in the United States as well. President Joe Biden and Trudeau spoke about the issue by phone on Friday.
Ottawa’s biggest concern is Canada’s reputation. Canada is concerned about its role in emerging supply chains of the future. The Trudeau government is wary of the Biden administration’s “Buy American” mandates, as well as the possibility that massive subsidies for electric vehicle and battery production in the United States will crowd out Canadian manufacturers. Canada is therefore deeply concerned about its reputation as a reliable supplier. It does not want to give the United States any excuse to question its reliability. The threat to Canada’s economy is so great that it is forcing governments there to act.
What options are available to the Canadian government?
The plan is to try to stop the protests using provincial and municipal police forces — not the military — with national police support as needed. In what was an apparent olive branch to protesters, the premier of Ontario, where the Ambassador Bridge is located, announced he plans to end vaccine requirements for restaurants and other indoor venues. The trump card under the velvet glove is that he has declared a state of emergency in the province. He is telling protesters to go home peacefully but threatening them with hefty fines and jail time if they refuse. He hopes that will be enough, but if the protests don’t disperse within the next 24 hours or so, arrests are likely.
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Should other countries be concerned about similar protests?
The risk of that happening is high. Sympathetic right-wing media coverage in the United States and Freedom Flotilla-inspired protests in Australia, New Zealand and elsewhere suggest that Canada has become a model for the pro-Trump right internationally, and the flotillas are seen as an effective tactic for pressuring governments. There is an absolute risk of copycats. And that is already happening.
The good news is that other governments are now learning the rules of the game. In the United States, federal, state and local governments are preparing to crack down on any caravans before they actually set up shop. Most countries, including the United States and Canada, have laws prohibiting the blocking of public roads.
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The Biden administration should also make a more vocal effort to support other countries as they try to take reasonable steps to overcome the pandemic. We hope that other Western governments will follow Biden’s lead. There is now opposition to sensible health measures, especially vaccination, in countries around the world. The vast majority of the world’s people support these measures, and the governments that represent them need to be more proactive in speaking out and supporting each other. The U.S. government is late to the party. The Biden administration should have spoken out earlier and more forcefully against what was happening in Ottawa and supported the Canadian government in taking stronger action. That would have helped.
