Germany’s new €49 monthly fee for all regional public transport will have little impact on carbon emissions in the transport sector, so the country will continue to miss its climate targets in and beyond transport, according to the council of experts advising the government.
Since the German transport sector has so far failed to meet its emissions targets, the government decided in June foot A set of measures that will help put the country on track to reduce overall emissions by 65% by 2030, compared to 1990.
Among the key measures promoted by Transport Minister Volker Wessing (FDP/Renew Europe) is the new “Deutschlandticket” introduced in May, a subscription offer that allows users to use trains, regional buses, trams and the metro, as well as some ferries, across the country for €49 a month.
“It’s one of the best ideas we’ve ever come up with,” said Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who described the predecessor to the €49 ticket and the provisional introduction of a similar €9 ticket during the summer of 2022. Taz “With our decisions, we ensure that we can achieve climate goals while preserving prosperity in our country,” he said in January.
However, the transport sector is far from meeting emissions reduction targets in the run-up to 2030, and the €49 ticket does not help much. According to expectations The study was prepared by the Federal Environment Agency and published alongside a report by the German Council of Experts on Climate Change, which advises the government.
During this decade, the sector will exceed its emissions trajectory by 117 to 191 million tons of carbon dioxide, the expert council noted, adding that this huge discrepancy is due to different expectations on the effectiveness of climate measures between the Ministry of Transport and the Federal Environment Agency.
For the Deutschlandticket specifically, UBA expects an annual reduction in emissions of between 0.5 and 0.6 million tonnes of CO2 per year, bringing the total to 4.2 million tonnes by 2030.
In contrast, the Ministry of Transport believes it will be more effective, and expects a cumulative emissions reduction of 22.6 million tons until 2030, when drivers are expected to use cars less thanks to the new option.
27 million people do not have access to frequent public transportation
For the Council of Experts, the Ministry of Transport’s calculations “appear to be exaggerated”, because they do not sufficiently take into account the capacity constraints of the public transport network and the decrease in comfort and therefore attractiveness in the event of high passenger numbers, it noted in its report. a report.
“Especially in sparsely populated areas where there are hardly any buses and trains, the Deutschland Pass does not help,” said Agora Werkhersvende, a think tank.
In Germany, a country of 83 million people, “some 27 million people do not use public transport in their vicinity or use it only a few times a day,” according to a statement from the research foundation.
When asked to comment on the discrepancy between the forecasts, the Federal Environment Agency referred the matter to the Ministry of Transport.
“Regarding the modeling of the ministries, I recommend you ask them directly. Especially since the BMDV (Federal Ministry of Digitalization and Transport) model has not been published,” a UBA researcher told EURACTIV.
The Ministry of Transport did not respond to a request for comment.
The effectiveness of other measures is equally disputed
In other measures, the Council of Experts expressed doubts about the Ministry of Transport’s forecasts.
While 22.6 million tons of CO2 were reduced due to more people working from home, a reduction in mileage would be quite realistic, a further 14.1 million tons of CO2 were avoided due to “efficiency gains through driving.” Automated and connected” would be “hardly to be expected.” The Council of Experts noted.
Likewise, the Economy Ministry, led by Environment Minister Robert Habeck, and the Transport Ministry, led by the FDP’s Wessing, are overestimating the effectiveness of the new CO2 tax that will be added to road tolls from December 2023, experts say.
While the Climate Ministry expects this to reduce transport emissions by 17.9 million tonnes of CO2, the Transport Ministry expects a reduction of 22.5 million tonnes.
A CO2 tax on road freight transport was one of the Green Party demands reached as part of marathon negotiations on climate protection earlier this year. The proceeds from this measure will go in part to the struggling German railway company Deutsche Bahn.
“The federal government is interested in generating revenue, not in a directive effect on engines,” a spokesperson for the German Transport and Logistics Association (DSLV) told EURACTIV.
And since revenues from the new fees are expected to increase, rather than decrease, over the coming years, “the federal government clearly recognizes that neither alternative powertrains nor charging infrastructure are available to a sufficient extent to enable a rapid transition to zero-emission vehicles on the road.”
“If the CO2 tax is effective, the shift to zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) will be faster,” a DSLV spokesman said.
(Editing by Sean Golding Carroll/Zoran Radosavljevic)
